Starting hand odds
Before the flop, your two cards are random. These are the chances of being dealt some common hands, and of a pocket pair or suited cards improving.
| What happens | Chance | About |
|---|---|---|
| Dealt any pocket pair | 5.9% | 1 in 17 |
| Dealt pocket aces, or any one pair | 0.45% | 1 in 221 |
| Dealt suited cards | 23.5% | 1 in 4.3 |
| Dealt ace-king | 1.2% | 1 in 83 |
| Pocket pair makes a set on the flop | 11.8% | 1 in 8.5 |
| Pocket pair makes a set by the river | 19.2% | 1 in 5.2 |
| Unpaired cards pair one on the flop | 32.4% | 1 in 3.1 |
| Suited cards make a flush by the river | 6.4% | 1 in 16 |
Counting outs
Outs are the cards left in the deck that would turn your hand into the likely winner. Say you hold 8♥ 7♥ and the flop comes 9♠ 6♦ 2♣. Any five or any ten gives you a straight. There are four of each, so you have eight outs.
On the flop there are 47 cards you haven't seen: 52 minus your two and the three on the board. On the turn there are 46. That's where the numbers below come from.
| Draw | Outs | Turn | River | Turn or river |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pair to three of a kind | 2 | 4.3% | 4.3% | 8.4% |
| Gutshot straight draw | 4 | 8.5% | 8.7% | 16.5% |
| Two overcards | 6 | 12.8% | 13.0% | 24.1% |
| Open-ended straight draw | 8 | 17.0% | 17.4% | 31.5% |
| Flush draw | 9 | 19.1% | 19.6% | 35.0% |
| Flush draw and gutshot | 12 | 25.5% | 26.1% | 45.0% |
| Flush and open-ended draw | 15 | 31.9% | 32.6% | 54.1% |
Turn: one card to come from the flop. River: one card to come from the turn. Turn or river: both cards from the flop, if you see them both.
The rule of 2 and 4
You don't need the table at the table. Two quick sums get you close:
- One card to come: multiply your outs by 2. Eight outs is about 16%.
- Two cards to come, from the flop to the river: multiply your outs by 4. Eight outs is about 32%.
The times-four rule runs high with lots of outs. Above eight outs, subtract the number of outs over eight: fifteen outs is 60 − 7, about 53%. The exact figure is 54.1%.
Pot odds
Pot odds compare what a call costs with what you can win. Say the pot is 100 and your opponent bets 50. You call 50 to win a pot of 200, so you need to win at least 50 out of 200, or 25% of the time, for the call to break even.
The shortcut: you need = bet ÷ (pot + 2 × bet), using the pot before the bet.
| Bet size | You need to win | Pot odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1/4 pot | 16.7% | 5 : 1 |
| 1/3 pot | 20.0% | 4 : 1 |
| 1/2 pot | 25.0% | 3 : 1 |
| 2/3 pot | 28.6% | 2.5 : 1 |
| 3/4 pot | 30.0% | 2.3 : 1 |
| Pot | 33.3% | 2 : 1 |
| 2 × pot | 40.0% | 1.5 : 1 |
Putting it together
You have a flush draw on the flop and your opponent bets half the pot. The table says you need to win 25% of the time. A flush draw hits on the very next card only 19.1% of the time, so on the turn card alone the call loses money.
It can still be a good call. If you expect to win extra chips on later streets when the flush comes in, those implied odds can make up the difference. Against a player who bets big again on the turn, they often won't.
Coming to practice
Count the outs · Call or fold?
Levels 2 and 3 drill exactly this: count the outs on a real board, then decide whether the price is right.
See all levelsQuestions
What are outs in poker?
The unseen cards that would improve your hand enough to win. A flush draw has nine outs: thirteen cards of the suit minus the four you can already see.
Are the rule of 2 and 4 numbers exact?
No, they're quick estimates. They're within a couple of percent for most draws, which is close enough to make a decision at the table.
What's the difference between pot odds and implied odds?
Pot odds only count the chips in the pot now. Implied odds also count what you expect to win later in the hand if your draw comes in.